Signal interpretation
Current assessment
El Niño Advisory. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. Latest measured Niño 3.4 anomaly: +2.70°C.
Why it matters
El Niño changes the probability of heat, rainfall, drought, fire weather, marine stress and supply-chain disruption across many regions. It does not determine the weather at every location.
Watch next
Watch NOAA and WMO updates, Niño 3.4 persistence, coupled atmospheric indicators and the supported duration and strength probabilities.